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extent to which inflation expectations are formed by the announced targets. As the credibility of the central bank increases … target. Credibility enables expectation to be formed in a forward-looking way by weakening its connection with the past. This … study aims to contribute to the literature concerning the effects of credibility on monetary policy. For this purpose, using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014558525
-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy under discretion is shown to set higher interest rates today if average inflation exceeded … term in the central bank's optimal instrument rule, which we refer to as the credibility loss. Augmenting a standard Taylor … seven central banks and that this influence is economically meaningful. A deteroriation in credibility forces central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449
During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605066
During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298759
During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303730
This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604610
macroeconomic model of commitment and credibility. As the dependent variable, we calculate a post-reform inflation rate. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270683
A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604871
formation of inflation expectations and that the anti-inflationary credibility of both central banks is not perceived to differ …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297316
In this paper we analyze disinflation policy when a central bank has imperfect information about private sector inflation expectations but learns about them from economic outcomes, which are in part the result of the disinflation policy. The form of uncertainty is manifested as uncertainty about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265530