This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of...

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing views about the natural rate hypothesis but have left an important question unanswered. Why was the Fed so slow to implement the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural...

This paper investigates two different procedures for the measurement of the NAIRU; one based on structural modeling while the other is a statisticai approach using Vector Auto Regression (VAR)-models. Both measurement procedures are assessed by confronting them with the dominant theory of...

A persistent increase in the unemployment rate ignites speculations about whether the changes to unemployment are structural or cyclical. The New Zealand economy has been through major restructuring since the mid-1980s. The labour market's institutional changes were the last in the sequence of...

Since the 1960s, several countries have adopted incomes policies to control inflation that was interpreted as the result of a distributional struggle between business and labour unions. This theoretical framework, termed the "battle of the mark-ups", has also formed the basis for estimating...

Since the 19960s, several countries have adopted income policies in various forms to control inflation that had been interpreted as the result of a distributional struggle between business and labour unions. Recent writings on the NAIRU, however, ignore past policy interventions in the wage and...

This paper estimates the Brazilian NAILO (Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output), obtains (Bayesian) probability bands for the Nailo and for its growth rate, and investigates the relationship between deviations of output with respect to the Nailo and the acceleration of inflation. As...

The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long-run implies the compartmentalisation of macroeconomics. While one branch of the literature models inflation dynamics and estimates the unemployment rate compatible with inflation stability, another one determines...

I propose an econometric model that improves upon existing methods of estimating the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) by using information contained in the trend of productivity growth. My approach enhances the recently proposed model of Staiger, Stock and Watson (1997) in several respects....

Edmund S. Phelps ist ein einflussreicher Makroökonom. Ihm sind bahnbrechende Einsichten bei der mikroökonomischen Modellierung nicht-walrasianischer Erwartungsgleichgewichte gelungen. Seine Analyse von Anreizlöhnen und unfreiwilliger Arbeitslosigkeit mündet in die Vorstellung einer...