A multivariate structural time series model is applied to the factor inputs of a production function (or components thereof) to estimate the Belgian output gap. The usefulness of capacity utilization is also investigated but the variable is not given a prominent status. The number of independent...

This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary's potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are...

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing "news" on the basis of an evolving...

Recent work on policy rules under uncertainty have highlighted the impact of output gap measurement errors on economic outcomes and their importance in the formulation of appropriate policy rules. This paper investigates the reliability of current estimates of the output gap in Canada. We begin...

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

We use a standard quantitative business cycle model with nominal price and wage rigidities to estimate two measures of economic ineffciency in recent U.S. data: the output gap - the gap between the actual and effcient levels of output - and the labor wedge - the wedge between households'...

Despite the great importance and final success of the convergence process that led to the establishment of the European Monetary Union, there is no clear agreement regarding the monetary policy pursued in the member countries during the convergence process. This paper contributes to the...

This paper proposes a simple explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It suggests that the best method of solving the puzzle implies a close connection between theory and empirics rather than the introduction of a commodity price....