This paper presents new findings on biased survival beliefs by constructing their individual-level objective counterparts. We find that biases can be modelled through age-dependent probability weighting functions as known in cumulative prospect theory. The dynamics of these probability weighting...

On average, young people underestimate whereas old people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. We employ a subjective survival belief model proposed by Ludwig and Zimper (2013), which can replicate these patterns. The model is compared with hyperbolic discounting within a...

Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neo-additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We...

This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in empirically estimated deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions...

This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates...

This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied...

Based on the psychological interpretation of conditional non-additive probability measures arising in Choquet expected utility theory we introduce a behavioral model of asset price fluctuations. In this model naive agents are prone to a confirmatory bias in the interpretation of new information...

Die bestehenden Regeln zur Begrenzung der Staatsverschuldung im föderalen System Deutschlands sind unzureichend. Eine Aufteilung der Maastricht-Kriterien auf die Gebietskörperschaften setzt keine Anreize zur Vermeidung der Neuverschuldung, sofern die Obergrenzen erfüllt sind. Wir schlagen...

Die Arbeit untersucht die bestehenden Budgetregeln in Deutschland und stellt zwei aktuelle Reformvorschläge vor, die Schweizer Schuldenbremse und die Schuldenschranke des Sachverständigenrats. Investitionen nach dem Haushaltsrecht werden mit dem Nettoinvestitionsbegriff verglichen und auf ihre...

In this paper, we compare growth and welfare effects of various budget rules within an endogenous growth model with productive public capital, utility enhancing public consumption and public debt. We find that a fixed deficit regime does not affect the long run growth rate compared to a balanced...