In this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long …-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China …-)escalate once global and domestic economic conditions normalise. Third, the fundamental factors underpinning growth in China are …

For a long time, China’s impressive growth performance has been driven by investment and high productivity gains. Based … on the recent discussion on possible overcapacities and overinvestment in China, the paper investigates the … sustainability of China’s investment- and export-driven growth model. It is shown that since the turn of the millennium buoyant …

constitute long-term appreciation expectations on yuan and yen, which have made China and Japan vulnerable to U.S. interest rate … cuts and appreciation expectation shocks. For both China and Japan – at different points of time – self-fulfilling runs …, speculative bubbles and post-bubble secular stagnation. To prevent a similar scenario for China capital controls, a tighter …

This paper offers a theoretical basis for the concept of rebalancing and applies it to China, where it is currently a … topical issue. Rebalancing here means the correction of economic and social imbalances built up during industrialization. This … using expansionary stimulus programmes as done over the past decade in China create new imbalances that have to be corrected …

China has been growing at high rates during the previous three decades. The current process of rebalancing from an … rates. We show that China's current state of structural change in terms of sectoral employment shares is similar to the … historical developments in Japan and South Korea. We derive plausible scenarios for future growth rates in China and (by …

in recent decades. The pitfalls of the current ``soft'' rebalancing policy in China are analyzed in the context of this …China is currently experiencing a structural change toward tertiarization and an implied growth slowdown associated … with it. The paper investigates whether this growth slowdown is merely cyclical or a negative trend, and further what China …

China's rise has been the economic success story of the past four decades but economic growth has been slowing and … domestic imbalances have widened. This paper analyses the recent evolution of China's imbalances, the risks they pose to the … economic outlook and the potential impact of a transition to sustainable growth in China on the global and euro area economies …

The recent declines in China's financial account balance ended the twin surplus era and led to a modest decline in the … have been visible in China's financial balances since the last quarter of 2011, have heightened fears/anxiety in markets … short-term trade credits to prepay (for imports) in dollars, a rise in dollar advances from banks, and a withdrawal of …

particular, we evaluate how a rebalancing of the economy from investment-led to consumption-led growth would affect the economic … dynamics after a shock occurs. Our findings suggest that a rebalancing would reduce the volatility of the real economy in the … event of a technology shock, which provides support for policies aiming to increase the consumption share in China. …