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, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster … updates are progressive, where the interaction between model and intuition is explicitly taken into account. The data set for … progressive, and that progress can be explained predominantly by improved intuition. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326444
numerical forecasts can be decomposed into both an econometric model and random expert intuition. We show that the … intuition, and the current and lagged correlations between intuition and news (or shocks to the numerical forecasts). It follows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326506
allocation decisions respond to intuition or deliberation. In a newly developed approach, we assess intuition and deliberation at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688531
Can we use the lens of dual-system theories to explain altruistic behavior? In recent years this question has attracted the interest of both economists and psychologists. We contribute to this emerging literature, by reporting both the results of a meta-study of the literature and a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029791
We claim that understanding human decisions requires that both automatic and deliberate processes be considered. First, we sketch the qualitative differences between two hypothetical processing systems, an automatic and a deliberate system. Second, we show the potential that connectionism offers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264831
It has been repeatedly shown that in decisions under time constraints, individuals predominantly use noncompensatory strategies rather than complex compensatory ones. We argue that these findings might be due not to limitations of cognitive capacity but instead to limitations of information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264841
In recent years, numerous studies comparing intuition and deliberation have been published. However, until now … postulate that intuition and deliberation are completely distinct processes against predictions of interventionist models. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266959
Many everyday decisions have to be made under risk and can be interpreted as choices between gambles with different outcomes that are realized with specific probabilities. The underlying cognitive processes were investigated by testing six sets of hypotheses concerning choices, decision times,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266962
within a relatively short time (i.e., 2.2 seconds). The results indicate reliance on extremely well-calibrated intuition … underlying intuition and make the application of simple heuristics and deliberate strategies very unlikely. Taking an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270635
This extended abstract shows the importance of human intuition in the context of creating new knowledge. In particular …, inspirational intuition plays an important role. In contrast to Daniel Kahneman's fast, intuitive and routine decision-making in … terms of a System 1 (Kahneman 2011, pp. 19 ff.), inspirational intuition is shown to be a slow, incubational, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540410