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Non-Bayesian testing of a stochastic prediction
Dekel, Eddie; Feinberg, Yossi - 2005
We propose a method to test a prediction of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, a predicted distribution is tested using a realization of the stochastic process. A test associates a set of realizations for each predicted distribution, on which the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272320
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Biased Experts, Costly Lies, and Binary Decisions
Hodler, Roland; Loertscher, Simon; Rohner, Dominic - 2010
Decision makers lacking crucial specialist know-how often consult with better informed but biased experts. In our model …, and to situations with multiple experts and uncertainty about the size of the expert's bias. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430094
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Sequential Aggregation of Verifiable Information
Hahn, Volker - 2010
We introduce the notion of verifiable information into a model of sequential debate among experts who are motivated by … career concerns. We show that self-censorship may hamper the efficiency of information aggregation, as experts withhold … phenomenon, and the probability of the correct state of the world being revealed always converges to one as the group of experts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011753200
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Would you like to be a prosumer? Information revelation, personalization and price discrimination in electronic markets
Morasch, Karl; Bandulet, Martin - 2003
Electronic commerce and flexible manufacturing allow personalization of initially standardized products at low cost. Will customers provide the information necessary for personalization? Assuming that a consumer can control the amount of information revealed, we analyze how his decision...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010300399
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Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity
Manzano, Carolina; Vives, Xavier - 2010
We study a general static noisy rational expectations model, where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270646
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Would You Like to Be a Prosumer? Information Revelation, Personalization and Price Discrimination in Electronic Markets
Bandulet, Martin; Morasch, Karl - 2003
Electronic commerce and flexible manufacturing allow personalization of initially standardized products at low cost. Will customers provide the information necessary for personalization? Assuming that a consumer can control the amount of information revealed, we analyse how his decision...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270920
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Volunteering and the strategic value of ignorance
Morath, Florian - 2011
Private provision of public goods often takes place as a war of attrition: individuals wait until someone else volunteers and provides the good. After a certain time period, however, one individual may be randomly selected. If the individuals are uncertain about their cost of provision, but can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274941
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Market power and information revelation in dynamic trading
Gottardi, Piero; Serrano, Roberto - 2002
We study a strategic model of dynamic trading where agents are asymmetrically informed over common value sources of uncertainty. There is a continuum of uninformed buyers and a finite number of sellers, some of them informed. When there is only one seller, full information revelation never...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318890
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Vertical product differentiation when quality is unobservable to buyers
Orosel, Gerhard O.; Zauner, Klaus G. - 2004
We analyze vertical product differentiation in a model where a good's quality is unobservable to buyers before purchase, a continuum of quality levels is technologically feasible, and minimum quality is supplied under competitive conditions. After purchase the true quality of the good is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261256
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A true expert knows which question should be asked.
Dekel, Eddie; Feinberg, Yossi - 2004
We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266301