Showing 1 - 10 of 16,282
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U … jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar … forecasts for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276366
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables, using the example of age-specific mortality in the … their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a … for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276367
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231
may either choose to receive annuity payouts, calculated based on a mortality table agreed to at contract inception, or … receive the accumulated capital as a lump sum. Considering stochastic mortality improvements, such an option could be of … substantial value. Whenever mortality improves less than originally expected, the policyholder will choose the lump sum and buy an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263765
Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index … company. Liabilities in our stochastic simulation framework are driven by a GDP-linked variant of the Lee-Carter mortality … stochastic process. Our results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265671
Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295816
Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276173
This paper investigates the complex interrelationships of qualitative socio-economic variables in the context of Boolean Regression. The data forming the basis for this investigation are from the German Micro-census waves of 1996 2002 and comprise about 400 000 observations. Boolean Regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298423
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326499
settler mortality instrument of Acemoglu et al. (2001) and father's education's instrument used by Hoogerheide et al. (2012a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326354