the age model outperforms the estimated benchmarks; i.e. two autoregressive models, an ARIMA and the 2 per cent forecast …

survey data, we assess six possible explanations for this upsurge in mortality. Most find little support in the data: the … mortality rates. The two factors that do appear to be important are alcohol consumption, especially as it relates to external …

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U … jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar …, which ignore certain sources of uncertainty, may yield misleadingly sure predictions. To test the forecast ability of our …

Generation zunimmt. Mithilfe eines Zeitreihenmodells wird eine Prognose der Pro-Kopf-Wohnfläche Deutschlands bis zum Jahr 2030 in …