After the publication of Keynes' "General Theory," economics was frequently described as schizophrenia: (neo-) classical at the micro-level, but Keynesian at the macro-level. In actuality, Keynes' revolution was, to a substantial part, based on the behavioral micro-foundations of the world we...

Keynes' General Theory (GT) ist in zweierlei Hinsicht umfassender als das (neo-) klassische Modell: (1) sie schließt das Vollbeschäftigungsgleichgewicht als Sonderfall ein und (2) sie basiert auf realistischem mikroökonomischem Verhalten, dessen sozial isolierter, den Eigennutz maximierender...

Anscombe and Aumann (1963) offer a definition of subjective probability in terms of comparisons with objective probabilities. That definition - which has provided the basis for much of the succeeding work on subjective probability - presumes that the subjective probability of an event is...

In this paper we consider a population of would-be migrants in a developing country. To begin with, this population is divided into two sets: those who save by themselves to pay for the cost of their migration, and those who pool their savings with the savings of another would-be migrant to pay...

Anscombe and Aumann (1963) offer a definition of subjective probability in terms of comparisons with objective probabilities. That definition - which has provided the basis for much of the succeeding work on subjective probability - presumes that the subjective probability of an event is...

Is an assumption of bounded rationality needed to explain Social Security and other mandatory pension plans? In this contribution we argue that when rational agents hold inconsistent expectations such programs may be justified. Two of the features that distinguish Social Security and many other...

We estimate the impact of Kenya's post-election crisis on individual risk preferences. The crisis interrupted a longitudinal survey of more than five thousand Kenyan youth, creating plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to civil conflict by the time of the survey. We measure individual risk...

We use data on households' deductible choices in auto and home insurance to estimate a structural model of risky choice that incorporates standard risk aversion (concave utility over final wealth), loss aversion, and nonlinear probability weighting. Our estimates indicate that nonlinear...

The prospect theory is one of the most popular decision-making theories. It is based on the S-shaped utility function, unlike the von Neumann and Morgenstern (NM) theory, which is based on the concave utility function. The S-shape brings in mathematical challenges: simple extensions and...

Motivated by individuals' emotional response to risk at different time horizons, we model an 'anxious' agent - one who is more risk averse with respect to imminent risks than distant risks. Such preferences describe well-documented features of 1) individual behavior, 2) equilibrium prices, and...