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inflation volatility. The analysis for 75 countries which have adopted MPCs provides some support for the above suggestion …: countries with less than five MPC members tend to have larger deviations from trend inflation than MPCs with five members …; raising the number of MPC members above five does not contribute to a further reduction in volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276919
This contribution investigates the role of education in domestic terrorism for 133 countries between 1984 and 2007. The … findings point at a nontrivial effect of education on terrorism. Lower education (primary education) tends to promote terrorism … education (university education) reduces terrorism in a cluster of countries where conditions are more favorable. This suggests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281923
Any measure of unobserved inflation uncertainty relies on specific assumptions which are most likely not fulfilled … forecast models, and volatility models. We show that all measures are driven by a common component which constitutes an … indicator for inflation uncertainty. Moreover, the idiosyncratic component of survey disagreement contains systematic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312179
increasing over time. Inflation volatility in south-eastern Europe is significantly higher than in the euro area. While this is … transition countries, inflation has generally been higher and more volatile than in advanced economies. The analysis reveals that … the subindex housing/energy appears to be the main driving force behind overall inflation in the region. In most of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606209
question of how central bank transparency is entangled with price stability and inflation volatility. A plethora of studies … same is true for inflation volatility: central bank transparency seems to diminish inflation uncertainty. This confirms the … bankers to explain their monetary policy decisions in detail and for them to publish inflation forecasts. This leads to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011622905
the upswing in the credit volatility that kept money supply variability from translating into inflation and GDP volatility. … volatilities away from the downward trending GDP and inflation volatilities. Using an endogenous growth monetary DSGE model, with … micro-based banking production, enables a contrasting characterization of the two great volatility cycles over the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288820
and Karanasos (2008) to examine the intertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of inflation and output growth in … the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects output variability positively, while output variability has a negative … effect on inflation uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422179
volatility for inflation uncertainty, et vice versa. Regarding the subsequent volatility of short-term and of long-term interest … volatility of the real exchange rate to inflation uncertainty cannot be rejected. … markets and inflation is analyzed. The results of Granger-causality tests reveal that stock market has no predictive power …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275547
estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or …This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to using forecasts based on a single estimation window, averaging over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276222
-dependence; for periods of relatively high and volatile inflation not only the size of price changes (intensive margin) but also the … fraction of price adjustment (extensive margin) is important for aggregate inflation dynamics. Moreover, at the business cycle … frequency, variations in the extensive margin explain a large fraction of inflation variability even for moderate inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427610