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I present empirical results on the contribution of three key drivers of inflation in Denmark: an inflation trend anchored by inflation expectations; the Danish business cycle; and an energy price cycle. All three drivers contribute significantly to the development of inflation and explain most of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014563915
money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such … velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during … important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010494417
This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas in any purely forward-looking model …, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, anticipation amplifies volatility, we obtain ambiguous results when including a …) to provide numerical evidence that news shocks increase the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in the euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298830
This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility …) to provide numerical evidence that news shocks increase the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in the euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285357
We propose the method of eigenvalue filtering as a new tool to extract time series subcomponents (such as business-cycle or irregular) defined by properties of the underlying eigenvalues. We logically extend the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of the VAR time-series models focusing on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604595
money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such … velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during … important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288749
In this paper we analyze how the availability of credit influences the relationship between government size as a proxy for fiscal stabilization policy and the amplitude of business cycle fluctuations in a sample of advanced OECD countries. Interpreting relatively low loan-tovalue ratios as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294478
Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and … structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260526
We solve for the optimal portfolio allocation in a setting where both conditional correlation and theclustering of extreme events are considered. We demonstrate that there is a substantial welfare loss indisregarding tail dependence, even when dynamic conditional correlation has been accounted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326016
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298587