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German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?
Müller, Karsten - 2020
textual analysis to convert qualitative text data into quantitative sentiment indices. First, a sentiment analysis utilizes … characteristics of sentiments. In a third step, sentiment indices are used to test the efficiency of numerical forecasts. Using 12 …-month-ahead fixed horizon forecasts, fixed-effects panel regression results suggest some informational content of sentiment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012297069
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Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on accuracy and forecaster behaviour from Germany
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Müller, Karsten - 2018
Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011985268
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The macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank revisited
Haertel, Thomas; Hamburg, Britta; Kusin, Vladimir - 2022
The use of a semi-structural model as one of the workhorse tools for macroeconomic analysis and projections at the Bundesbank has a long-standing tradition. In an iterative projection process, the macroeconometric model's main task is to merge projections by Bundesbank experts for various areas...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476157
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Predicting abnormal stock return volatility using textual analysis of news: A meta-learning approach
Myšková, Renáta; Hájek, Petr; Olej, Vladimír - In: Amfiteatru Economic Journal 20 (2018) 47, pp. 185-201
important than news sentiment in predicting stock return volatility is another important finding. Notably, we show that Rotation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012004548
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Konjunkturprognosen: Verfahren, Erfolgskontrolle und Prognosefehler
Grömling, Michael - 2005
The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average … Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to be generally optimistic. The analysis of the forecasts in the years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262887
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Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013
to the fit. Using data for the United States, the euro area and Germany, we assess the performance of boosting when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292498
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Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
Heilemann, Ullrich; Stekler, H. O. - 2003
The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306245
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Forecast revisions of Mexican inflation and GDP growth
Capistrán, Carlos; López-Moctezuma, Gabriel - 2010
We analyze forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1995-2009. The forecasts are for the current and the following year, comprising an unbalanced three-dimensional panel with multiple individual forecasters, target...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322569
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Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions
Chang, Chia-Lin; de Bruijn, Bert; Franses, Philip Hans; … - 2013
It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions. Under weak-form (forecast) efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326506
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Now-casting and the real-time data flow
Bańbura, Marta; Giannone, Domenico; Modugno, Michele; … - 2013
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics. In this paper we survey recent developments in economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605609