behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, and is linked to equity market sentiment and higher moments of the risk-neutral density …. We _nd that our implied volatility (IV) sentiment measure, jointly derived from index and single stock options, explains … investors' overweight of tail events well. When employed within a trading strategy, our IV-sentiment measure delivers …

that this behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, linked to equity market sentiment, and higher moments of the risk …-neutral density. An implied volatility (IV) sentiment measure that is jointly derived from index and single stock options explains … investors' overweight of tail events the best. Our findings also suggest that IV-sentiment predicts equity markets reversals …

evolution of the persistence and predictability of inflation relative to a trend component. Using a standard sticky-price model …, we show that a more aggressive policy stance towards inflation causes a decline in inflation predictability, providing a …

Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear … distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be … broader, ultimately more meaningful concept of longerterm predictability also encompasses the ability of the private sector to …