long-run interest rates and inflation expectations into account. We find a strong connection between oil prices and long … strong relationship if inflation and oil prices were driven by monetary policy. The observed magnitude of this relationship …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of … rate series and the stationary component of the real interest rate is estimated and shocks to expected inflation and the ex …-ante real rate are identified using the long-run restriction that only shocks to expected inflation have long-run effects on the …

information from the yield curve. We find important changes in the dynamics of macroeconomic variables such as inflation and the … variables. The monetary policy shocks of the early 1980s explain a large portion of the persistence of inflation and the level …

last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation … Einflüsse und/oder strukturelle Faktoren zum niedrigen Niveau der Renditen in den USA in den letzten Jahren beigetragen haben …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …