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Fiscal sustainability and policy rules: Under changing demographic forecasts
Lassila, Jukka; Valkonen, Tarmo; Alho, Juha M. - 2011
All practical evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and that has been taken into account in some studies by using stochastic population projections jointly with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326860
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Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing
Langenus, Geert - 2006
Mainly due to increasing concerns about the potential impact of population ageing the sustainability of public finances has become one of the key issues in fiscal assessments. This paper briefly reviews the different theoretical benchmarks and empirical tests for sustainability and assesses the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506623
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Bayesian demographic modeling and forecasting: An application to U.S. mortality
Reichmuth, Wolfgang H.; Sarferaz, Samad - 2008
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U … jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar … forecasts for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276366
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Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Deutschland bis 2050: nur leichter Rückgang der Einwohnerzahl?
Schulz, Erika; Hannemann, Anke - In: DIW Wochenbericht 74 (2007) 47, pp. 705-714
Seit der letzten Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung des DIW Berlin im Jahr 2004 haben sich zwei Parameter entscheidend verändert: Die gesetzliche Neuregelung der Zuwanderung hat seit 2005 zu einem starken Rückgang der Zuzüge geführt, vor allem bei Spätaussiedlern und Asylbewerbern, und eine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601768
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Demografische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland: Tendenzen und Implikationen
Ragnitz, Joachim - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 78 (2009) 2, pp. 110-121
Seit dem Zusammenbruch der DDR hat sich die Bevölkerungszahl in den ostdeutschen Flächenländern um 2,1 Millionen Personen vermindert; dies sind 13,7 Prozent der ursprünglichen Einwohnerzahl. Ausschlaggebend dafür waren nicht nur hohe Nettoabwanderungen insbesondere bei jüngeren...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377884
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The demographic transition: Causes and consequences
Galor, Oded - 2012
This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282290
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The demographic transition: Causes and consequences
Galor, Oded - 2010
This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284073
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Life-Cycle Variations in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings – Evidence for German Natives and Guest Workers
Brenner, Jan - 2009
In many economic models a central variable of interest is lifetime or permanent income which is not observed in survey data sets and typically proxied by annual income information. To assess the quality of such approximations, we use a unique source of lifetime earnings - the German pension...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265797
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Mobilisierung alternativer Finanzressourcen: Erfahrungen mit der Einführung von Studiengebühren: Vortrag bei der Tagung 'Quoi de neuf sur l'Allemagne? Les universités allemandes en...
Petersen, Hans-Georg - 2008
Der vorgestellte Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über die gegenwärtige Hochschulfinanzierung in Deutschland; kürzlich haben einige Bundesländer Studiengebühren eingeführt, die zu einer teilweisen Finanzierung der Studienkosten beitragen sollen. Im II. Kapitel werden außerdem kurz die...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270847
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Pension wealth and household savings in Europe: Evidence from SHARELIFE
Alessie, Rob; Angelini, Viola; van Santen, Peter - 2013
We use recently collected retrospective survey data to estimate the displacement effect of pension wealth on household savings. The third wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, SHARELIFE, collects information on the entire job history of the respondent, a feature missing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320748