This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

We present a new approach to handle dependencies within the general framework of case-control designs, illustrating our approach by a particular application from the field of genetic epidemiology. The method is derived for parent-offspring trios, which will later be relaxed to more general...

Regulatory capital for trading book positions includes two components that cover different risks but apply to the same portfolio, one for market risk and one for credit risk. Similar approaches are common in banks' internal models for economic capital. Although it is known that joint market and...

This paper presents a new axiomatic characterization of risk measures that are additive for independent random variables. In contrast to previous work, we include an axiom that guarantees monotonicity of the risk measure. Furthermore, the axiom of additivity for independent random variables is...

Foster and Hart propose a measure of riskiness for discrete random variables. Their defining equation has no solution for many common continuous distributions. We show how to extend consistently the definition of riskiness to continuous random variables. For many continuous random variables, the...

The latest financial crisis has exposed substantial weaknesses in the bank risk models used by national regulators as well as the Basel Accords. The study is aimed at presenting the evolution and critique of risk measures and risk models in banking, with a special focus on the dynamically...

Shadow banking is a broad concept. A possible definition is that it comprises non-bank institutions which undertake bank-like activities. Another characteristic is that the sector is overall less regulated. Therefore there are still shortcomings in systematic collection of information of the sector.

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the most important benchmark for measuring risk in portfolios of different types of financial instruments. However, as reported by many authors, estimating VaR is subject to a high level of uncertainty. One of the sources of uncertainty stems from the dependence of...

Composite models have received much attention in the recent actuarial literature to describe heavy-tailed insurance loss data. One of the models that presents a good performance to describe this kind of data is the composite Weibull-Pareto (CWL) distribution. On this note, this distribution is...

According to the last proposals of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, banks or insurance companies under the advanced measurement approach (AMA) must use four different sources of information to assess their operational risk capital requirement. The fourth includes 'business environment...