Measuring dependence in a multivariate time series is tantamount to modelling its dynamic structure in space and time. In the context of a multivariate normally distributed time series, the evolution of the covariance (or correlation) matrix over time describes this dynamic. A wide variety of...

This paper documents the function and use of the Gretl function package VCwrapper.pdf that implements the VC method for estimating time-varying coefficients in linear models as described in Schlicht (2021). It builds on the VCC program by Schlicht (2021a), is easy to use and highly configurable....

The paper continues the authors’ work (Freise et al. The adaptive Wynn-algorithm in generalized linear models with univariate response. arXiv:1907.02708, 2019) on the adaptive Wynn algorithm in a nonlinear regression model. In the present paper the asymptotics of adaptive least squares...

We consider a problem of estimation of parametric components in a partial linear model. Suppose that a finite set E of linear estimators is given. Our goal is to mimic the estimator in E that has the smallest risk. Using a second order expansion of the risk of linear estimators we propose a...

This paper analyzes short term portfolio investment opportunities in a capital market where a currency is defined as a currency basket, i.e. a linear combination of foreign currencies. In line with the mean-variance hedging approach, we determine a self-financed optimal investment strategy which...

Price variations observed at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelation and cross correlation among a set of assets, stock market indices, exchange rates etc. A particular problem in investigating multivariate volatility processes arises from the high dimensionality implied by a...

We propose a new estimator for nonparametric regression based on local likelihood estimation using an estimated error score function obtained from the residuals of a preliminary nonparametric regression. We show that our estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible local maximum...

This paper offers a new approach for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series. No assumption is made about the parametric form of the processes, on the contrary we only suppose that the volatility can be approximated by a constant over some interval. In such a...

The problem of estimation of the finite dimensional parameter in a partial linear model is considered. We derive upper and lower bounds for the second minimax order risk and show that the second order minimax estimator is a penalized maximum likelihood estimator. It is well known that the...

An efficient estimator is constructed for the quadratic covariation or integrated covolatility matrix of a multivariate continuous martingale based on noisy and non-synchronous observations under high-frequency asymptotics. Our approach relies on an asymptotically equivalent continuous-time...