Four years after the start of the Arab Spring uprisings, the macroeconomic situation in the EU’s Southern Neighbourhood remains weak and vulnerable and the recent intensification of civil strife and military conflicts is exacerbating this economic malaise. Macroeconomic performance may not...

The global crisis has taken its toll on the EU’s prime position in international trade. While the EU still has the largest relative market shares, its position has deteriorated since the crisis, much more so than the US, and its comparative advantage in knowledge-intensive goods has been...

We use a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis to explore the (spill-over) effects of fiscal policy shocks in Europe. To enhance comparability with the existing literature, we first analyse the effects of these shocks at the national level. Here, we employ identification based on Choleski...

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...