This report provides an update of the trends to 2030 published in 2003. The new baseline takes into account a high energy import price environment, the unsatisfactory economic growth of recent years and the more subdued growth prospects taking into account demographic developments. It includes,...

The role envisioned for liquid biofuels for transport has come under increased scrutiny in the past year or two, due to the potential social and environmental impacts associated with scaling up biofuels production and use from its low level—currently representing about 1% of transport fuels...

How could European long-distance transport - under different conditions and in different contexts - meet the following targets in 2047: • Reducing oil consumption by 80% • Reducing CO2 emissions by 60% • High level of accessibility – to offer an efficient, effective transportation system...

Within a two-step GARCH framework we explore the linkages between equity returns of ten sectors in the euro area, the United States and Japan, respectively. Our estimation framework allows a distinction to be made between spillover effects originating from one of the three currency areas and...

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a SVAR model some fiscal policy regimes, i.e. a u0094set of rulesu0094 for the implementation of fiscal policies. Second, we identify the fiscal policy shocks related to different...

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

This paper offers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US inflation by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time-inconsistency due to Cukierman (2002). In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities end up generating a systematic inflation bias...