Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and...

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

This study for DG Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) aims at measur-ing the administrative burdens for farmers arising from the 2003 Common Agricul-ture Policy (CAP) reform. The study provides an assessment of the administrative costs for selected CAP-related measures, especially the...

The introduction of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in EU agriculture may have economic implications that result from incomplete segregation of GM and traditional crop production. In particular, the presence of GMOs could not be ruled out in non-GM agricultural products. Due to...

Globalization is not a purely contemporary phenomenon. According to Chanda (2007) it has “worked silently for millennia without being given a name.” Indeed, globalization processes are continuously evolving, driven by the economic aspirations of millions around the globe— the more people...

Climate change is already happening. Regardless of international progress to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, the climate system will continue to adjust for the next few decades to past and present emissions. This will bring unavoidable impacts on natural and...