The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

This Country Focus discusses the relation between public investment and economic growth in Poland. Theoretical and empirical work has shown that improvements in the quantity and quality of public infrastructure have a positive impact on growth in the medium and, possibly, in the long run. The...

Following several years of low growth Germany is presently enjoying a relatively strong recovery. With unemployment falling at record speed and fiscal consolidation progressing, the upswing is set to continue in spite of uncertainties surrounding the VAT increase of January 2007. This Country...

The Czech financial sector has changed dramatically since transition. In fifteen years, it has developed from a state-owned mono-bank into a privatised bank-based financial system with developing capital and private equity markets. This country focus analyses the development of the financial...

While there has been some recovery since the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, both output and employment levels remain lower than they were pre-crisis in the EU-27. Indeed, the severity of the recession has been such that output has yet to return to 2007 levels in each of the largest...

This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output...