Showing 1 - 10 of 44
derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy … in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved … business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291665
series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954
that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636530
encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009668633
This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291666
Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291667
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011661247
, including within the context of joint programming between the EU, France, Germany and Spain. The scope of the study covers all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012036340
The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635887