There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

With very low unemployment, a large and stable current account surplus, low government debt and a budget in surplus, the Dutch economy was assessed initially to be relatively well prepared to weather the financial and economic crisis. In 2008, however, the negative effects of the financial...

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price rigidities. Then, it estimates a set of structural parameters...

We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight...

This Country Focus shows that some simple reserve adequacy measures (particularly based on external debt indices) – although suffering from a number of drawbacks – seem to be sound indicators of the largest vulnerabilities within the CEE8 region. Nevertheless, the analysis of...

Socially irresponsible behaviour by financial institutions played a major part in causing the financial crisis, which has developed into a serious economic, social and political crisis. Financial innovation and a general lack of transparency in the system have made it hard for the people of...

With the overarching objective of reducing systemic risk, EMIR introduces the obligation to clear certain classes of OTC derivatives in central clearing houses (CCPs) that have been authorised (European CCPs) or recognised (third-country CCPs) under its framework.ESMA defined the IRS classes to...