business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …

series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

target inflation rates as low as 2 percent. However, the effects of the constraint are non-linear with respect to the inflation … percent. The variability of output increases significantly and that of inflation also rises somewhat. Also, we show that the … increasingly short of potential with lower inflation targets. …