This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area. In particular, the historical predictive power of ten yield spreads, for different segments of the yield curve, is tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the...

With very low unemployment, a large and stable current account surplus, low government debt and a budget in surplus, the Dutch economy was assessed initially to be relatively well prepared to weather the financial and economic crisis. In 2008, however, the negative effects of the financial...

The financial crisis may pose a risk as well as offer an opportunity for the European defence sector: on the one hand, it sounds plausible that shrinking budgets increase the pressure on member states to cooperate and thus overcome the EU’s problems related to capability development and...

Overall, household debt levels have risen sharply over the past decades in EU Member States. While certain levels of household debts can be beneficial, they can become problematic especially with a sudden, unexpected decrease of incomes or increase of expenditures. The current financial crisis...

Household over-indebtedness is among the causes of the current financial crisis. In turn, the crisis exacerbated both public and private debt problems. In this paper, household over-indebtedness is broadly defined as the situation where a household cannot comply with payment requirements –...

This case study focuses on the measures used by ArcelorMittal to cut costs and avoid involuntary redundancies during the crisis in its largest Romanian subsidiary. The study aims to assess the effectiveness of the various measures applied to keep staff in employment and to ensure the company’s...

This report focuses on how Dexia Bank Belgium has responded to the considerable challenges resulting from the financial and economic crisis, and how the transformation of its workforce has been managed under these circumstances. It specifically emphasises the role of the social partner...

The EU emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2009 but growth remains anaemic ( 0.3%, EU27) and well below trend rates. Unemployment notably continues to rise and its pace of increase has accelerated in the most recent quarter to reach the highest levels in over a decade (9.5%, EU27)....

This Country Focus shows that some simple reserve adequacy measures (particularly based on external debt indices) – although suffering from a number of drawbacks – seem to be sound indicators of the largest vulnerabilities within the CEE8 region. Nevertheless, the analysis of...