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Two seemingly unconnected empirical results suggest an intriguing mechanism. First, economic integration helps harmonize prices internationally, with trade being the primary channel (Rogoff 1996, Goldberg and Knetter 1997). Second, monetary union may greatly increase the amount of trade among...
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This paper uses data on German government bond futures options to examine the behaviour of market expectations around …
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In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data … derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy … in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved …
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