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Forecasting Euro area industrial production using (mostly) business surveys data

Bruno, Giancarlo; Lupi, Claudio - Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica, Rom - 2003

derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy … in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved … business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291665

Identifying fiscal shocks and policy regimes in OECD countries

Arcangelis, Giuseppe de; Lamartina, Serena - 2003

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a ….1 percent quarterly on average at most to a 1 percentage change in the expenditure or revenue ratio). In Italy, the US and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635887

Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data

Rünstler, Gerhard; Sédillot, Franck - 2003

quarter. For this purpose, we use time series models to forecast the missing observations of monthly indicators. We then …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635895

Implementing optimal control in cointegrated I(1) structural VAR models

Monti, Francesca V. - 2003

This paper examines the feasibility of implementing Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) Control in structural cointegrated VAR models and sheds some light on the two major problems generated by such implementation. The first aspect to be taken into account is the effect of the presence of unit roots...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635883

Identifying the monetary transmission mechanism using structural breaks

Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2003

We propose a method for estimating a subset of the parameters of a structural rational expectations model by exploiting changes in policy. We define a class of models, midway between a vector autoregression and a structural model, that we call the recoverable structure. As an application of our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635894

Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy

Klaeffling, Matt - 2003

This paper proposes a new paradigm for the analysis of monetary policy. From an econometric point of view this new approach is just as easy to implement as reduced form analysis, but is robust to the Lucas critique. It requires no explicit prior theory and yet it encompasses all standard DSGE...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635920

Forecasting real GDP

Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922

Monetary policy analysis in a small open economy using Bayesian cointegrated structural VARs

Villani, Mattias; Warne, Anders - 2003

Structural VARs have been extensively used in empirical macroeconomics during the last two decades, particularly in analyses of monetary policy. Existing Bayesian procedures for structural VARs are at best confined to a severly limited handling of cointegration restrictions. This paper extends...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636519

Inflation and relative price asymmetry

Ratfai, Attila - 2004

forecast error variance in inflation at the 12-month horizon. While the contemporaneous correlation between inflation and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636524

What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe?

Giuliodori, Massimo; Beetsma, Roel - 2004

, France and Italy lead to significant increases in imports from a number of European countries. In order to mimic the case of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636548