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Forecasting Euro area industrial production using (mostly) business surveys data

Bruno, Giancarlo; Lupi, Claudio - Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica, Rom - 2003

derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy … in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved … business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291665

does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?

Hubrich, Kirstin - 2003

series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inﬂation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inﬂation twelve months …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954

Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes

Strauch, Rolf; Hallerberg, Mark; Hagen, Jürgen von - 2004

EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a … that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636530

Modelling inflation in the euro area

Jansen, Eilev S. - 2004

encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545

Waste opportunities

Europäische Umweltagentur; European Environment Agency - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009668633

Business survey data: do they help in forecasting the macro economy?

Hansson, Jesper; Jansson, Per; Löf, Mårten - Konjunkturinstitutet, Stockholm - 2003

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291666

A monthly indicator of the business climate in the french service industry : applications of benchmarking techniques in official statistics

Cornec, Matthieu; Deperraz, Thierry - Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes … - 2005

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291667

Options for future European electricity system operation

Ecorys Nederland BV - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011661247

Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero

Coenen, Günter; Orphanides, Athanasios; Wieland, Volker - 2003

This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We ﬁnd that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635983

Identifying fiscal shocks and policy regimes in OECD countries

Arcangelis, Giuseppe de; Lamartina, Serena - 2003

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635887