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Forecasting real GDP
Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922
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Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies?
Calza, Alessandro; Sousa, João - 2003
Based on a literature review, this paper investigates the reasons why broad money demand has usually been found to be more stable in the euro area than in other large economies. The paper concludes that there are three main explanations for this fact. First, in some countries outside the euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635916
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Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the euro area, when countries are heterogeneous
Barnett, William A. - 2003
simultaneous use of two inflation indexes over the euro area. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635917
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Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?
Bruggeman, Annick; Donati, Paola; Warne, Anders - 2003
This paper re-examines two data issues concerning euro area money demand: aggregation of national data and measurement of the own rate.The main purpose is to study if euro area money demand is subject to parameter non-constancies using formal tests rather than informal diagnostics. As a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635921
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Forecasting euro area inflation
Hubrich, Kirstin - 2003
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954
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A markup model of inflation for the euro area
Bowdler, Christopher; Jansen, Eilev S. - 2004
Equilibrium correction models of the price level are often used to model inflation. Such models assume that the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636529
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Fiscal policy and inflation volatility
Rother, Philipp C. - 2004
Among the harmful effects of inflation, the negative consequences of inflation volatility are of particular concern … inflation volatility. Major results are robust for unconditional and conditional inflation volatility, the latter derived from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636540
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Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?
Levin, Andrew T.; Piger, Jeremy M. - 2004
We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve … 1990s. Allowing for a break in intercept, the inflation measures generally exhibit relatively low inflation persistence …. Evidently, high inflation persistence is not an inherent characteristic of industrial economies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636705
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Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?
O'Reilly, Gerard; Whelan, Karl - 2004
This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for Euro-area in nation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behaviour of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coeffcients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636706
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The effect of inflation and interest rates on forward-looking effective tax rates
Streif, Frank (contributor); Spengel, Christoph (contributor) - Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) GmbH - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011527484