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Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data

Rünstler, Gerhard; Sédillot, Franck - 2003

, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of univariate forecasting equations to what extent monthly indicators provide …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635895

Forecasting euro area inflation

Hubrich, Kirstin - 2003

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the … ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area …) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954

Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?

Moneta, Fabio - 2003

-month interest rates is explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636517

Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes

Strauch, Rolf; Hallerberg, Mark; Hagen, Jürgen von - 2004

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636530

Modelling inflation in the euro area

Jansen, Eilev S. - 2004

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545

The informational content of over-the-counter currency options

Christoffersen, Peter; Mazzotta, Stefano - 2004

Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639420

Euro area inflation forecasting

Benalal, Nicholai; Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis; Landau, Bettina - 2004

In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639428

Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission

Berben, Robert-Paul; Locarno, Alberto; Morgan, Julian; … - 2004

This paper examines possible explanations for observed differences in the transmission of euro area monetary policy in central bank large-scale macroeconomic models. In particular it considers the extent to which these differences are due to differences in the underlying economies or (possibly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639460

On the selection of forecasting models

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - 2003

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639853

Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves

Fabiani, Silvia; Morgan, Julian - 2003

statistical averaging effect. Finally the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches is evaluated. The results point …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639854