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This paper reviews the key economic issues concerning the welfare costs of inflation and deflation, with a view to … shedding light on the desirable properties of the inflation process. Our review of the evidence on the overall costs of … inflation and deflation indicates that such costs could be even higher than previously thought, also at moderate rates of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635897
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954
adoption of monetary targets, the SNB was able to reduce the inflation trend to low levels. However, it was less successful in … preemptive policy stance. At the end of 1999, the SNB abandoned monetary targeting in favour of an approach based on inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635971
Estimates of the welfare costs of inflation based on Bailey (1956) are typically computed using aggregate money demand … models. Yet, the behavior of money demand may vary across sectors. Thus, the impact on welfare of inflation regime shifts may … Great Inflation to the present regime of low and stable inflation. For this purpose, we estimate different functional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640322
Empirical studies of the "shoe-leather" costs of inflation are typically computed using M1 as a measure of money. Yet … minimized for a positive but moderate value of the inflation rate, thereby justifying a deviation from the Friedman rule in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640765
This paper investigates the in inflationary effects of fscal policy in an optimizing general equilibrium monetary model with capital accumulation, exible prices and wealth effects. The model is calibrated to Euro Area quarterly data. Simulation results show that government defcits, high debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635879
help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries … since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except … Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635904
target inflation rates as low as 2 percent. However, the effects of the constraint are non-linear with respect to the inflation … percent. The variability of output increases significantly and that of inflation also rises somewhat. Also, we show that the … increasingly short of potential with lower inflation targets. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635983
Public deficit figures are subject to revisions, as most macroeconomic aggregates are. Nevertheless, in the case of Europe, the latter could be particularly worrisome given the role of fiscal data in the functioning of EU’s multilateral surveillance rules. Adherence to such rules is judged...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640831
By placing store-level price data into bivariate Structural VAR models of inflation and relative price asymmetry, this … forecast error variance in inflation at the 12-month horizon. While the contemporaneous correlation between inflation and … relative price asymmetry is positive, idiosyncratic shocks lead to a substantial build-up in inflation only after two to five …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636524