This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...

Standard measures of prices are often contaminated by transitory shocks. This has prompted economists to suggest the use of measures of underlying inflation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed inflation. Recent work has concentrated on modelling large datasets using...

This paper analyses the degree of inflation persistence in the EU15, the euro area and each of its member states using disaggregate price indices from the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries and indices. The overall results, based on...

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

In a cross section of OECD countries we replace the macroeconomic production function by a production possibility frontier, TFP being the composite effect of efficiency scores and possibility frontier changes. We consider, for the periods 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, one output: GDP per worker; three...

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations, and marginal costs. Expectations are not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual...

This study on the functioning of retail electricity markets for consumers in the EU is the follow up to the first market study conducted in 2009/2010, and published by the European Commission in 2010. The objectives of the current study are to investigate if a well-functioning electricity market...