Showing 1 - 10 of 101
This paper uses data on German government bond futures options to examine the behaviour of market expectations around monetary policy actions of the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, this paper focuses on the asymmetries in bond market expectations, as measured by the skewness of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636538
This study calibrates the term structure of risk premia before and during the 2007/2008 financial crisis using a new … calibration approach based on credit default swaps. The risk premium term structure was flat before the crisis and downward … sloping during the crisis. The instantaneous risk premium increased significantly during the crisis, whereas the long-run mean …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640393
This paper presents a set of probability density functions for Euribor outturns in three months’ time, estimated from the prices of options on Euribor futures. It is the first official and freely available dataset to span the complete history of Euribor futures options, thus comprising over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640514
When people share risk in financial markets, intermediaries provide costly enforcement for most trades and, hence, are … an integral part of financial marketsu0092 organization. We assess the degree of risk sharing that can be achieved … allow for optimal risk sharing as long as markets are complete, default is prevented in equilibrium and intermediaries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636542
Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639420
In this paper we study risk-neutral densities (RNDs) for the German stock market. The use of option prices allows us to … quantify the risk-neutral probabilities of various levels of the DAX index. For the period from December 1995 to November 2001 …, the US stock markets and credit risk. We find that the risk-neutral densities exhibit pronounced negative skewness. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639855
This paper proposes a new test for the asset pricing model of the exchange rate. It examines whether the way market analysts generate their forecasts is closer to the one implied by the asset pricing model, or to any of those implied by some alternative models. The asset pricing model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640340
During the last decade, markets for covered warrants (bank-issued options) have flourished in Europe and Asia. In these markets, investors often face a choice between many instruments that differ only slightly from each other. Based on retail trades in call options on the German DAX index, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640343
This paper analyzes the efficiency of risk-taking decisions in an economy that is prone to systemic risk, captured by … unconstrained access to a complete set of Arrow securities choose to expose themselves to such risk to a socially inefficient extent … employ ex-ante risk markets to fully undo any expected government bailout. Finally, it finds that constrained market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640834