There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

This study developed a methodology to assess revealed personal consumer detriment that robustly measures and quantifies the incidence and magnitude of detriment at EU and national level, taking into account both pre- and post-redress financial detriment and non-financial detriment such as time...

We model the impact of bank mergers on loan competition, banks' reserve holdings and aggregate liquidity. Banks compete in a differentiated loan market, hold reserves against liquidity shocks, and refinance in the interbank market. A merger creates an internal money market that induces financial...

Bulgaria has for years been facing some of the highest credit growth rates and current account deficits in Central and South-Eastern Europe, raising concerns about possible risks for macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Since standard monetary policy instruments are not available within...