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Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies?

Calza, Alessandro; Sousa, João - 2003

Based on a literature review, this paper investigates the reasons why broad money demand has usually been found to be more stable in the euro area than in other large economies. The paper concludes that there are three main explanations for this fact. First, in some countries outside the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635916

Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?

Bruggeman, Annick; Donati, Paola; Warne, Anders - 2003

This paper re-examines two data issues concerning euro area money demand: aggregation of national data and measurement of the own rate.The main purpose is to study if euro area money demand is subject to parameter non-constancies using formal tests rather than informal diagnostics. As a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635921

Forecasting real GDP

Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922

A stable model for euro area money demand

Beyer, Andreas - 2009

In this paper we present an empirically stable money demand model for Euro area M3. We show that housing wealth is an important explanatory variable of long-run money demand that captures the trending behaviour of M3 velocity, in particular its shift in the first half of this decade. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640468

Modelling inflation in the euro area

Jansen, Eilev S. - 2004

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545

On the selection of forecasting models

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - 2003

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639853

Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information

González, Andrés; Hubrich, Kirstin; Teräsvirta, Timo - 2011

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640913

A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area

Bruggeman, Annick; Donnay, Marie - 2003

This monthly monetary model for the euro area is gradually constructed from its two constituting components: a money demand and a loan demand model which both include the relation between the respective retail bank rates and the short-term market interest rate. Eventually, the encompassing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635913

The demand for euro area currencies

Fischer, Björn; Köhler, Petra; Seitz, Franz - 2004

inflation variability. Large-value banknotes seem to be therefore used to an important extent as a store of value domestically …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636553

Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the euro area, when countries are heterogeneous

Barnett, William A. - 2003

simultaneous use of two inflation indexes over the euro area. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635917