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We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on … of the conditional exogenous exchange rate volatility on the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in our open … empirically. In the second part, we investigate the effect of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility in a stochastic open …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551
autarchic (i.e. fundamental) FX returns. The model is calibrated and tested on the Czech koruna/euro exchange rate in a setting … with seven Czech and euro area asset returns. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636537
have posted higher average growth and wider output fluctuations than the euro area and other EU countries. Second, a set of … different methodologies suggests that business cycles of accession countries have been less synchronised with the euro area than … than the euro area "peripherals" (Greece, Portugal and Ireland). Moreover, synchrony differed across countries. Some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635910
Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates u0097 that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635953
In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636547
This paper estimates the factors underlying the volatility of the euro overnight interest rate and its transmission … along the euro area money market yield curve. A new multivariate unobserved components model is proposed allowing for both …'s operational framework for monetary policy implementation. Strong persistence is detected in all log-volatility processes and and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635972
Among the harmful effects of inflation, the negative consequences of inflation volatility are of particular concern … inflation volatility. Major results are robust for unconditional and conditional inflation volatility, the latter derived from … country-specific GARCH models, and across different data requencies, time periods and econometric methodologies. From a policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636540
This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635983
more stable in the euro area than in other large economies. The paper concludes that there are three main explanations for … this fact. First, in some countries outside the euro area the sources of instabilities in money demand were country …-specific. Second, financial innovation appears to have had a weaker impact on money demand in the euro area than in other economies. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635916
Over the past decades, cross-border financial flows have increased in importance and have in many occasions exceeded the underlying current account positions. This phenomenon has been accompanied by an increase in the volume of international equity transactions that accentuate the role of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635970