Showing 1 - 10 of 119
This paper presents new evidence on the social returns to education within a macroeconomic growth regression framework … dynamic human capital spillovers: the human capital stock increases prospective economic growth. The empirical results are … growth and jobs. Finally, the paper discusses discrepancies between private and social returns to education. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640173
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011624900
reduction of poverty and inequality in Paraguay. This work is part of an international process to evaluate the effects Budget … Support operation - the Programme to Support the Targeted Fight Against Poverty (PALFP), and two Sectoral Budget Support …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799506
This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636535
This paper extends the analysis of infinite dimensional vector autoregressive models (IVAR) proposed in Chudik and Pesaran (2010) to the case where one of the variables or the cross section units in the IVAR model is dominant or pervasive. This extension is not straightforward and involves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640346
We investigate the impact of fiscal variables on bond yield spreads relative to US Treasury bonds in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey from May 1998 to December 2007. To account for the importance of market expectations we use projected values for fiscal and macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640486
This paper introduces the concepts of time-specific weak and strong cross section dependence. A double-indexed process is said to be cross sectionally weakly dependent at a given point in time, t, if its weighted average along the cross section dimension (N) converges to its expectation in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640487
We define nowcasting as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past. Crucial in this process is to use timely monthly information in order to nowcast key economic variables, such as e.g. GDP, that are typically collected at low frequency and published with long...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640507
We propose a novel framework to assess financial system risk. Using a dynamic factor framework based on state-space methods, we construct coincident measures (‘thermometers’) and a forward looking indicator for the likelihood of simultaneous failure of a large number of financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640766
This paper investigates the average impact of government debt on per-capita GDP growth in twelve euro area countries … over a period of about 40 years starting in 1970. It finds a non-linear impact of debt on growth with a turning point …—beyond which the government debt-to-GDP ratio has a deleterious impact on long-term growth—at about 90-100% of GDP. Confidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640303