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A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to effcient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that incomplete asset markets and a low price elasticity of tradables can account...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636531
This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635910
Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates u0097 that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635953
exchange rate is unobserved, and an additional equation that links this autarchic currency price with the FX order flow. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636537
or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches … crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals … probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636547
We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVARmodel is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551
This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635983
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010369723
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335320