In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or...

To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

Over the past decades, cross-border financial flows have increased in importance and have in many occasions exceeded the underlying current account positions. This phenomenon has been accompanied by an increase in the volume of international equity transactions that accentuate the role of...

This report provides an overview of the methods and results of the TRENDS (Transport and Environment Database System) project. The aim of this project was to produce a range of transparent, consistent and comparable indicators of the environmental pressure caused by transport. Results cover the...

The document describes the evolution of intra-EU current account asymmetries. Some experimental results obtained using a modelling approach to derive asymmetry-free European aggregates are presented. The results are not usable at the national (Member State) level and they will not eliminate...

The analysis of the business cycle for the entire European Union and the Monetary Union for the purpose of economic and monetary policy needs European-wide aggregated statistics. Europe has generally chosen to obtain such European aggregates by combining national statistics. european-wide single...