We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

Youth unemployment policy has tended to focus on two groups: young people with low educational attainment and those with higher education who have failed to find work. However, there is a large group of middle attainers who tend to be overlooked by policy – young people who have completed...

The development of maritime policy requires a number of key issues to be addressed,including an understanding of the employment impact and trends of activities related to thesea or using sea resources. For example, in the past the economic and employmentimpact of activities related to the sea...

This paper examine differences between risk-neutral and objective probability densities of future interest rates. The identification and quantification of these differences are important when risk-neutral densities (RNDs), such as option-implied RNDs, are used as indicators of actual beliefs of...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a SVAR model some fiscal policy regimes, i.e. a u0094set of rulesu0094 for the implementation of fiscal policies. Second, we identify the fiscal policy shocks related to different...

Two seemingly unconnected empirical results suggest an intriguing mechanism. First, economic integration helps harmonize prices internationally, with trade being the primary channel (Rogoff 1996, Goldberg and Knetter 1997). Second, monetary union may greatly increase the amount of trade among...

Strukturen der allgemeinen und beruflichen Bildung und der Erwachsenenbildung in Europa Wer die allgemeine Organisation der Bildungssysteme in Europa kennen lernen möchte, findet die entsprechende Basisinformation in den ca. 40-Seiten umfassenden Länderberichten. Diese Monografien werden...

This paper uses data on German government bond futures options to examine the behaviour of market expectations around monetary policy actions of the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, this paper focuses on the asymmetries in bond market expectations, as measured by the skewness of...

Member States are permanently excluded. However, there remains a risk that France and Germany will use the idea of a core Europe to cajole others into accepting their demands. Such a strategy would be deeply divisive for the Union. Franco-German cooperation is welcome if u0096 and only if u0096...