Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the … ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area …) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time …

, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of univariate forecasting equations to what extent monthly indicators provide …

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square …

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting … for estimating the model parameters. In forecasting inflation, the central bank inflation target, if it exists, is a … natural example of such exogenous information. We illustrate the application of our method by an out-of-sample forecasting …