This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

Turkey is currently introducing a comprehensive pension reform, which aims at unifying the currently disperse system and reducing the significant - and rapidly growing – social security deficit from 4.8% of GDP in 2005 to less than 1% of GDP by 2035. The cumulative value of the deficits over...