This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary shocks with a special focus on the effects of foreign money ("global liquidity") on the euro area. We estimate structural VAR models for the euro area and the global economy including a global liquidity aggregate. The impulse...

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

Estimations of simple monetary policy rules are often very rigid. Standard practice requires that a decision is made as to which indicators the central bank is assumed to respond to, ignoring the data-rich environment in which policy-makers typically form their decisions. However, the choice of...

Das Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel (IfW) ist eines der großen Zentren weltwirtschaftlicher Forschung, wirtschaftspolitischer Beratung, ökonomischer Ausbildung und wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Dokumentation. Das Institut sieht seine Hauptaufgabe in der Erforschung...

The CEPII is France's leading institute for research on the international economy. The Centre's independence is guaranteed by its Board, which sets out the strategic guidelines for the CEPII's research. The Board comprises government officials, business personalities, trade unionists and...

The Lisbon strategy could reinvigorate Europeu0092s economy and boost employment. In 2000 the European leaders agreed to stimulate economic growth and employment and make Europeu0092s economy the most competitive in the world. If Europe would really reach the goals they set, Europeu0092s Gross...

We analyse the effects of money growth within a standard New Keynesian framework and show that the interaction between staggered nominal contracts and money growth leads to a long-run trade-off between output and money growth. We explore the microeconomic mechanisms that lead to this trade-off,...

How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? In this paper we consider a simple model where firms are subject to idiosyncratic shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms’ assets and liabilities are denominated in nominal terms and predetermined when...