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There is already a substantial literature documenting the fact that low yield currencies typically appreciate during times of global financial stress and behave as safe havens. The main objective of this paper is to find out what the fundamentals of safe haven currencies are. We analyse a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640614
This paper presents evidence for structural differences in economic growth dynamics between the current EU and the central- and eastern European accession countries. Two important results emerge from the analysis. First, accession countries have posted higher average growth and wider output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635910
Standard economic models hold that exchange rates are influenced by fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help predict changes in floating exchange rates u0097 that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635953
The paper proposes a multi-factor international asset pricing model in which the exchange rate is allowed to be co-determined by a risk factor imperfectly correlated to other priced risks in the economy. The significance of this factor can be established as long as one is able to observe a proxy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636537
In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals' distributions. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636547
We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVARmodel is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551
The long-run determinants of euro area FDI to the United States during the period 1980-2001 are explained by employing … found to influence euro area FDI to the United States. Moreover, the inclusion of the Tobin's Q enhances the traditional …), and the real exchange rate are statistically significant determinants of euro area FDI to the United States. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636552
This paper investigates the relationship between bilateral FDI positions and cross-country business cycle correlations … in the period 1982–2001. We find that countries that have comparatively intensive FDI relations also have more … synchronized business cycles during 1995–2001. Before 1995, we also find a positive association between FDI linkages and output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639461
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639915
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639922