The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end … useful information for predicting euro area real GDP growth over the current and the next quarter. In particular, we … examine GDP forecasts under different amounts of monthly information. We find that already a limited amount of monthly …

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews … theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M …1 has better and more robust forecasting properties for real GDP than yield spreads. This property persists when one …