series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

prior theory and yet it encompasses all standard DSGE models. After introducing this new paradigm I study US monetary policy …

encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …

decision problem of using self-governance for risk sharing or governance through enforcement provided by these institutions … prevent first-best risk sharing, but never optimal to provide incentives exclusively via this technology. Commitment problems …

international equity transactions that accentuate the role of international risk sharing as a factor for the macroeconomic response … shock affecting only one country. Efficient global risk-sharing imply that expected productivity gains in one country will … for the productivity gains can further increase the risk exposure of foreign shareholders. The model is calibrated to show …

When people share risk in financial markets, intermediaries provide costly enforcement for most trades and, hence, are … an integral part of financial marketsu0092 organization. We assess the degree of risk sharing that can be achieved … allow for optimal risk sharing as long as markets are complete, default is prevented in equilibrium and intermediaries …

We examine the performance of forward-looking inflation-forecast-based rules in open economies. In a New Keynesian two … the feedback parameter on inflation if the forecast horizon lies too far into the future. Second, the problem of …

In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast … of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro …. For the euro area HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy (HICPX), the indirect forecast outperforms the direct whereas …