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derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy … in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved … business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291665
Im Jahre 2008 führte die Beratende Kommission für den industriellen Wandel (CCMI)des EWSA eine Reihe von Seminaren durch, um Informationen über die wichtigstenMeilensteine der Veränderungen der Grundzüge der Wirtschaft in den Ländern MittelundOsteuropas zusammenzutragen. Das Ziel bestand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260411
Germany. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441576
series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954
that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636530
encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009668633
This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291666
Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291667
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