In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary shocks with a special focus on the effects of foreign money ("global liquidity") on the euro area. We estimate structural VAR models for the euro area and the global economy including a global liquidity aggregate. The impulse...

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

The long and sustained expansion of the nineties has generated, especially in the US, widespread rumours about the "death of the cycle". Nevertheless, towards the end of the last decade, it became clear that fluctuations of economic activity were far from being extinct. This has contributed...

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

The collapse of the communist regime in Central and South-Eastern Europe gave way to sweeping economic and socio-political changes, marked by the conversion of centrally planned state economies into market economies, political liberalisation and democratisation, as well as to integration into...

Read these clear, concise summaries of country economic surveys and today's global policy challenges.

Ce rapport présente les résultats de l’évaluation de la coopération de la Commission européenne (CE) en Bolivie entre 1996 et 2006. Il s’agit d’une « évaluation-pays » dont les objectifs sont, d’une part, de fournir une appréciation globale et indépendante de la coopération de...