Policy attention to the security industry increased substantially after the terrorist attacks in the U.S. on September 11th, 2001. With an increased demand for security, the global security market grew a tenfold to around €100 billion in 2011. Many studies expect that growth of the worldwide...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...